منابع مشابه
Expert Judgment in Risk Analysis
Experts are often used to provide uncertainty distributions in risk analyses. They play an importantrole when insufficient data exist for quantification, or when the available data or models are conflicting. Multiplesteps are required in constructing a successful expert judgment process. These steps include selecting andframing the issues, identifying the experts, deciding upon an o...
متن کاملBalancing consistency and expert judgment in AHP
The variousmechanisms that represent the know-howof decision-makers are exposed to a common weakness, namely, a lack of consistency. To overcome this weakness within AHP (analytic hierarchy process), we propose a framework that enables balancing consistency and expert judgment. We specifically focus on a linearization process for streamlining the trade-off between expert reliability and synthet...
متن کاملIndependence Preservation in Expert Judgment Synthesis
We prove, with a few minor exceptions, that if P1 and P2 are probability distributions on the countable set S for which the fixed events E and F are independent, then, both for the standard Euclidean metric and for any metric inducing a topology coarser than the Euclidean topology, there exists a third probability distribution P3 on S that preserves this independence and is equidistant from P1 ...
متن کاملStructured Elicitation of Expert Judgment for Probabilistic Hazard and Risk Assessment in Volcanic Eruptions
When a potentially dangerous volcano becomes restless, civil authorities invariably turn to scientific specialists to help them anticipate what the volcano will do next, and to provide them with guidance as to the likely threats. Although it is usually possible to discern the earliest signs of unrest, the science of forecasting the course and timing of eruptions remains inexact. In this chapter...
متن کاملTU Delft expert judgment data base
We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the "classical model" developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years (Cooke, 1991). These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications involved the use of seed variables; t...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Global Environmental Change
سال: 2017
ISSN: 0959-3780
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.02.005